Sequence-risk

Turn cash buckets into an operating system. This U.S. example compares one-, two-, and three-year designs, maturity ladders, refill order, guardrails, and bear-market exceptions.

The same annual returns can produce different retirement outcomes when withdrawals are present. This reproducible U.S. example shows sequence risk, asset-sale order, and practical mitigation rules.

A first-year bear market does not automatically break FIRE, but early losses plus rigid withdrawals can permanently reduce the recovery base. Use this U.S. action plan and decision triggers before selling.