Why the 4% Rule Doesn’t Work the Same for Everyone

Introduction

In the FIRE community, the 4% rule is often treated as gospel.

But is it really suitable for everyone?

Where Did the 4% Rule Come From?

The 4% rule originated from the Trinity Study, based on:

• Historical U.S. market data
• A 30-year retirement horizon
• Specific stock/bond allocations

It was never meant to be a universal retirement blueprint.

Why Blindly Applying It Can Be Risky

Myth 1: It Ignores Lifestyle Differences

Healthcare, housing, and family obligations vary dramatically.

Myth 2: It Assumes Stable Market Returns

Sequence-of-returns risk can drastically alter outcomes.

Myth 3: It Overlooks Spending Flexibility

Real-life expenses aren’t fixed for decades.

A More Practical Perspective

The 4% rule works best as:

A starting reference,
not a final answer.

Understanding assumptions matters more than memorizing numbers.

Final Thoughts

FIRE isn’t about perfect formulas. It’s about building adaptable, realistic plans.

Knowing the limits of the 4% rule is the first step.